Why the Media is Wrong About Chinese Democracy
The Shrill Voice of False Western Hope
The Olympics have ended, but that doesn’t mean that the hopes and dreams that came with it have. At least, not the hopes and dreams that the “West,” or at least the western media had for China.
Yes, the Olympics have ended but that doesn’t mean that the population has suddenly “awakened” or is now “agitated” or any other of the popular descriptions that the press is using to say why it must be “inevitable” that democracy must sweep across China, or at the very least, the Communist Party would have to make concessions—after all, if memory serves, isn’t that what they used to say about China even before the Olympics?
The fact of the matter is that the Chinese population, upon the end of the Olympics, now feels a sense of pride and confidence that they did not have before. Beyond that, they feel proud of their achievements and what they showed the world during the Olympics—compare that to before when even the population was scared that upon China’s grand entrance into the world stage would be marked more by embarrassing laughter instead of crowning awe.
No, it’s not likely right now that the Chinese are very angry or “agitated” against their Communist “masters.”
Mistaking the Horse for the Rider
Though addressing that, can one actually call the Communist Party the absolute master of China?
Fareed Zakaria and other somewhat more informed commentators have noted that the Chinese population is actually not all that discontent with their government—and that polls show that the Chinese government has higher approval ratings by the people than most European (and certainly the American) governments.
Although one might want to try to write that off as coercion by the government, the argument is weakened by the fact that looking at the same polls across time, the approval rating started low and only became to rise to the levels it is at now after the economic boom. It isn’t all fiction. In fact, it’s probably mostly true, given that the polls also include candid complaints about corruption in the government. Generally, if the government is controlling what the people say, the greatest complaint would probably not be listed as corruption.
The reality is that the Communist Party and its ruling head, the Politburo, rule only at the pleasure—or at least apathy—of its population. While one might want to imagine some sort of Hitler or Stalin-esqe totalitarianism in China, the conditions on the ground are actually one of the government’s fragile hold.
Using the particular examples of democratic agitators, by far a minority in the country, the Western media paints a picture of an oppressed people, just waiting for some breath of air, some savior to lift them into democratic bliss. They fail to mention that most of these persecuted individuals are persecuted in large part because few others care very much about their persecution, and fewer still have any desire to join them (or care about their cause).
If you actually look at what has happened during every period where some uprising by the people has occurred—during Japanese visits to the Yasukuni shrine, for instance, or the accidental U.S. bombing of a Chinese embassy—the people have by far been the more violent component of the Chinese nation. The government is left attempting to calm the tiger without having it turn on them and rip it to shreds.
The reality is, if anything, the Chinese are farther than they were from democracy than before.
A Bittersweet Victory
Though, I, at least, have to question whether or not the West actually wants what its media and intellectuals seem to want so badly to happen.
The advent of China’s economic boom only brought more approval to the government. The rise of the internet only united mobs that felt surrounded by the rest of the world and spew virulent nationalism—and are often the more dangerous persecutor of democratic dissidents.
So what has to happen to have the Chinese government fall?
The exact opposite of what the media has predicted each time.
It will not be rising prosperity or the technology that will bring and end to the Communist party’s rule.
It will be poverty—or at least economic turmoil—or, again, ironically, a greater friendliness by the Chinese government towards the West. Again, as said, the exact opposite of what the media has been predicting.
It’s only when the Chinese people actually become dissatisfied that the government will fall. The media has made the mistake of thinking the Chinese people are already dissatisfied, and that the government is simply too strong.
But upon these terms, the fall will come if the economy sputters, and thus the government loses its mandate to rule. Or when the government embraces the West too much, or at least becomes too favorable to the Americans and Europeans (certainly something that these countries want) and instead take a less hard line stance towards certain hot-button issues, say the stance against Japan’s war memorial, or the independence of Tibet.
The media has consistently made the comforting error that the Chinese people also want more comfortable relations, and a free Tibet, when the insurmountable challenge to negotiations by the Chinese government is the intractable, uncompromising population itself.
Given this, if we see the Chinese government fall, the most likely replacement will not be a liberal, democratic government friendly to the West. More likely, it will be an ultranationalist monster that will truly bring to life Napoleon’s warnings centuries ago about a rising China. Cliché, perhaps, but maybe the West should be careful what it wishes for.
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